China braces for restrusturing Evergrande Group
A long-awaited debt restructuring of China’s Evergrande Group
may finally be at hand,
posing a new test for Xi Jinping’s government as
it tries to rein in the country’s
financial excesses without hampering economic growth.
The beleaguered developer said in a stock exchange late
Friday that it plans to “actively engage” with external
creditors in the restructuring plan, offering its frank
acknowledgment so far that its $300 billion of foreign and
domestic liabilities have become unsustainable.
A barrage of statements from Chinese regulators – many of which fell just minutes after Evergrande’s
announcement – suggest authorities are scrambling to contain the fallout for
financial markets and homeowners rather than orchestrating a bailout.
The government of Guangdong, the southern province
where Evergrande is based, summoned founder Hui Ka Yan
to express concern about the company’s announcement and
said it would send a team to the developer to ensure “normal”
operations. The People’s Bank of China blamed
Evergrande’s problems on “bad company management” and
“reckless expansion”.
The surge of activity comes after several weeks of relative calm
for Evergrande, which has made last-minute payments on its dollar notes since late October at the
invitation of Beijing. Friday’s data suggested the world’s most
indebted developer may struggle to make further payments
during grace periods, even after a series of personal asset sales
by Hui that appear designed to help Evergrande meet its debt
obligations in the near term.
The company’s next test comes on Monday. That’s when the 30-day grace period expires on two dollar bond interest payments
that were initially due on November 6: a $41.9 million note payable in 2022 and $40.6 million interest on
a security due the following year. Both bonds were issued by
Senri Journey Limited.
The question for global markets is whether Beijing can
coordinate the restructuring without altering the broader
real estate sector, which accounts for nearly a quarter of
economic output. Policymakers have a history of abandoning
efforts to rein in developers when risks to growth mount,
although Xi appears more determined than his predecessors
to eliminate the moral hazards that have allowed companies
like Evergrande to expand so quickly.
One risk is that Beijing may not have a complete picture of the
indebtedness of the Evergrande and its peers. The Shenzhen-based developer indicated in its stock exchange filing Friday that
it may not be able to honor its pledge to guarantee repayment
on a $260 million note issued by Jumbo Fortune Enterprises
joint venture, a commitment many Evergrande investors didn’t know existed.
Until a few months ago.
While it will be important to monitor how the Evergrande
restructuring progresses, the prospects for a renewed panic in
China’s credit markets are low, according to analysts at China
International Capital Corp. One of the largest investment banks
in the country. Analysts Yan Shu and Eric Yuchang wrote in a
report that real estate firms with poor management and high
financial risks will be “phased out”, but the authorities are likely
to ensure that high-quality developers retain access to financing.
Analysts wrote that the fallout from Evergrande is likely to be
“controlled within a relatively limited range.”
Bond investors have been anticipating the Evergrande restructuring
for months, as the company’s 2025 dollar bond has been trading
at less than 30 cents since the end of September. China’s junk
bond index fell for a third day on Friday, taking yields to 22%,
although gains in investment-grade bonds suggest bondholders are more relaxed about the
possibility of contagion than they were earlier this year.
Investors are increasingly distinguishing between weaker and
stronger borrowers after the Chinese government took steps
to alleviate a liquidity crunch for top-rated developers in recent weeks. Aside from Evergrande, money
managers are preparing for a possible default by Kaisa Group
Holdings Ltd. , which faces a $400 million bond maturity on Tuesday after it failed to swap
for new notes maturing after 18 months.
For Evergrande, the next step may be entering an informal
debt freeze as it continues to try to negotiate with creditors,
according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Danielle Fan.
“It is likely that the maturities will be extended based on the
sustainability of the debt,” he said. “One option to improve the process is to tie some of the
payment back to its offshore assets,” Fan added, such as the
Hong Kong-listed electric car unit.
Evergrande’s external creditors are widely expected to fall
near the bottom of the list of priorities in restructuring, behind
the nearly 1.6 million homeowners who have made down payments
to the developer on real estate, local suppliers, Evergrande
employees, and individual investors who have purchased wealth
management and products Trust associated with the company.
Many WMPs and trusts associated with Evergrande have already
defaulted, restructured, or defaulted on payments.