Oil Prices Rise Because Iran War Isn't Like Liberation Day

U.S. crude oil prices bounced back above $90 a barrel on Tuesday morning, with four days left in President Donald Trump's five-day ceasefire. Unlike Trump's markets-saving retreat after he backed off the aggressive "Liberation Day" tariffs announced on April 2, financial market analysts say the current crisis isn't one he can simply undo. He needs Iran's cooperation, and Tehran is signaling the opposite.

The spokesman for Iran's military command vowed on Tuesday to fight "until complete victory," Associated Press reported around the time Tehran again came under fire, as Israel pays no heed to the U.S. ceasefire.

Oil futures pricing suggests markets a banking on either diplomacy or a military coalition reopening the Strait of Hormuz and bringing down oil prices, but show modest expectations for that happening soon.

The near-term contract for U.S. crude oil prices rose 4.87% to $92.42 a barrel on Tuesday morning, according to CME Group data. Oil futures had climbed above $100 a barrel on Monday before Trump's Truth Social post about a potential diplomatic breakthrough sent oil tumbling to around $88.

Brent crude futures climbed 3.6% to $103.51 in Europe, Intercontinental Exchange pricing shows. Brent oil prices had climbed to $113 on worries about an escalating conflict before sliding to around $100 on Trump's Truth Social Post.