Leading by tech roaring، S&P 500 hits 15th record in 2 months

The S&P 500 topped 5،100،  hitting its 15th record this year till the end of Febuary as the stock market powered ahead amid a renewed rally in tech companies، with traders also sifting through the latest remarks from a slew of Federal Reserve speakers for clues on the interest-rate path and traders looked past weak economic data amid bets policymakers will be able to cut rates as soon as June. 

The S&P 500 rose about 1% and the Nasdaq 100 climbed almost 1.5% 

The S&P 500 rose about 1% and the Nasdaq 100 climbed almost 1.5%، a gauge of chipmakers jumped over 4% and Nvidia Corp. led tech companies gains in megacaps، while Dell Technologies Inc. soared 32% on solid sales، as market momentum remains intense، with any momentary period of weakness quickly bought by bulls.

With results out from nearly all S&P 500 companies، fourth-quarter earnings look stellar and growth was nearly 8%، compared with expectations for a 1.2% rise before the season started and those beats helped to offset macroeconomic uncertainty.

The S&P 500 rose over the past two months

The S&P 500 rose over the past two months، traders have pushed back their bets on when the Fed will start to cut rates. and fading hopes for easing monetary policy did little to aid equities at the start of the year just as earnings season came into focus that some 76% of firms surprised to the upside، outperforming the 10-year average of 74%، according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence، prompting Wall Street to confidently snap up equities at a rapid clip.

Five Wall Street firms have already lifted their forecasts for the S&P 500، which is up over 7% to start the year after rising 24% in 2023، as the frenzy around artificial-intelligence has blindsided Wall Street forecasters، spurring a race among strategists to keep up with a stock market rally that’s already blowing past their expectations when 2024 began.

The S&P 500 wrapped up February with a rally of over 5%

The S&P 500 wrapped up February with a rally of over 5%، extending its winning run to four consecutive months and since 1950، whenever the gauge finished higher in both January and February، full-year returns for the index have averaged 19.8%، according to Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial.

March has historically been a good month for stocks as the S&P 500 has posted an average return of 1.1%، so the winning streak will continue، however، during election years، average March returns dip to only 0.4%، with notable historical weakness mid-month.

The S&P 500 gauge remains in  neutral، not sell

A stock indicator from BofA that’s tracking Wall Street strategists  average recommended equity allocations ticked higher last month، moving closer to flashing a contrarian  sell  signal than a buy  for the first time since April 2022، still، the S&P 500 gauge remains in  neutral، not sell، territory with equities managed to gain Friday despite data showing US factory activity shrank at a faster pace in February as orders، production and employment contracted.

The S&P 500 rose 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time، the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% at the end of Friday as markets are pricing in fewer rate reductions this year in response to economic data، not because the central bank is winning a battle with investors.

Interest rates will remain at a 22-year high at least through the Fed’s next meeting on March 19-20

In recent weeks، many policymakers have indicated that interest rates will remain at a 22-year high at least through the Fed’s next meeting on March 19-20، with the first cut likely later this year and officials are watching to see whether January’s surprise jump in consumer prices was a fluke or a roadblock on the way toward lower inflation.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell looks set to echo his colleagues in suggesting that rate cuts are likely to begin “later this year” in his testimony to Congress next week، according to Andrew Hunter at Capital Economics، but with the downward trend in core inflation still looking intact، that doesn’t rule out a first cut in June.

The U.S. stock market has showcased remarkable resilience

US officials are likely to raise their 2024 projections for economic growth and inflation at their upcoming meeting this month، upping the chances the central bank might signal fewer rate cuts for this year، according to rate strategists at Bank of America Corp.

The U.S. stock market has showcased remarkable resilience، with the S&P 500 hitting its 15th record this year، surpassing the 5،100 mark، led predominantly by technology companies، reflects a broader market sentiment that remains bullish despite weak economic indicators.